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https://preview.redd.it/pmjpy8sqh1x51.jpg?width=580&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b02715d6d6f153592a967f577c18578363ca731c The FOREX market is the largest financial market in the world. On a daily basis, trillions of dollars are traded in different currencies around the world. Being FOREX the basis for international capital transactions, its liquidity and volume are much greater than any other financial market. It is estimated that the average volume traded by the world's largest stock exchange, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in a full month, is equal to the volume traded daily in the Forex currency market. In addition, it is estimated that this volume will increase by 25% annually. 80% of transactions are between the US dollar (USD), the euro (EUR), the yen (JPY), the British pound (GBP), the Swiss franc (CHF), and the Australian dollars (AUD) and Canadian (CAD).
What is traded in the Forex market?
We could just say that money. Trading in FOREX simultaneously involves buying one currency (for example euros) and selling another (for example US dollars). These simultaneous purchase and sale operations are carried out through online brokers. Operations are specified in pairs; for example the euro and the dollar (EUR / USD) or the pound sterling and the Yen (GBP / JPY). These types of transactions can be somewhat confusing at first since nothing is being purchased physically. Basically, each currency is tied to the economy of its respective country and its value is a direct reflection of people's perception of that economy. For example, if there is a perception that the economy in Japan is going to weaken, the Yen is likely to be devalued against other currencies. In other words, people are going to sell Yen and they are going to buy currencies from countries where the economy is or will be better than Japan. In general, the exchange of one currency for another reflects the condition of the health of the economy of that country with respect to the health of the economy of other countries. Unlike other financial markets such as the stock market, the currency market does not have a fixed location like the largest exchanges in the world. These types of markets are known as OTC (Over The Counter). Transactions take place independently around the world, mainly over the Internet, and prices can vary from place to place. Due to its decentralized nature, the foreign exchange market is operated 24 hours a day from Monday to Friday. >>> Forex Signals With Unbeatable Performance: Verified Forex Results And 5° Rated OnInvesting.com|Free Forex Signals Trial:CLICK HERE TO JOIN FOR FREE
The 8 most widely used currencies (USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, CAD, NZD, and AUD) are known as “ major currencies ”. All other currencies are called " minor currencies ." You don't need to worry about minor currencies, as you probably won't start trading them for now. The USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, and CHF currencies are the most popular and most liquid currencies on the market.
• Base currency
The base currency is the first currency in any currency pair. It shows how much the base currency is worth against the second currency. For example, if the USD / CHF has a rate of 1.6350, it means that 1 USD is worth 1.6350 CHF. In the forex market, the US dollar is in many cases the base currency to make quotes, the quotes are expressed in units of $ 1 on the other currency of the pair. In some other pairs, the base currency is the British pound, the euro, the Australian dollar, or the New Zealand dollar.
• Quoted currency
The quote currency is the second currency in the currency pair. This is often referred to as a "pip-currency" and any unrealized gains or losses are expressed in this currency.
A pip is the smallest unit of the price of any currency. Almost all currencies consist of 5 significant digits and most pairs have the decimal point immediately after the first digit. For example EUR / USD = 1.2538, in this case, a pip is the smallest change in the fourth decimal space, which is, 0.0001. A notable exception is the USD / JPY pair where the pip equals $ 0.01.
• Purchase price (bid)
The buying price (bid) is the price at which the market is ready to buy a specific currency in the Forex market. At this price, one can sell the base currency. The purchase price is displayed on the left side. For example, in GBP / USD = 1.88112 / 15, the selling price is 1.8812. This means that you can sell a GPB for $ 1.8812.
• Sale Price (ask)
The asking price is the price at which the market is ready to sell a specific currency pair in the Forex market. At this price, you can buy the base currency. The sale price is displayed on the right-hand side. For example, at EUR / USD = 1.2812 / 15, the selling price here is 1.2815. This means that you can buy one euro for $ 1.2815. The selling price is also called the bid price.
All Forex quotes include two prices, the bid (offer) and the ask (demand). The bid is the price at which the broker is willing to buy the base currency in exchange for the quoted currency. This means that the bid is the price at which you can sell. The ask is the price at which the broker is willing to sell the base currency in exchange for the quoted currency. This means that the ask is the price at which you will buy. The difference between the bid and the ask is popularly known as the spread and is the consideration that the online broker receives for its services.
• Transaction costs
The transaction cost, which could be said to be the same as the Spread, is calculated as: Transaction Cost = Ask - Bid. It is the number of pips that are paid when opening a position. The final amount also depends on the size of the operation. It is important to note that depending on the broker and the volatility, the difference between the ask and the bid can increase, making it more expensive to open a trade. This generally happens when there is a lot of volatility and little liquidity, as happens during the announcement of some relevant economic data.
• Cross currency
A cross-currency is any pair where one of the currencies is the US dollar (USD). These pairs show an erratic price behavior when the operator opens two operations in US dollars. For example, opening a long trade to buy EUR / GPB is equivalent to buying EUR / USD and selling GPB / USD. Cross-currency pairs generally carry a higher transaction cost.
When you open a new account margin with a Forex broker, you must deposit a minimum amount of money to your broker. This minimum varies depending on each broker and can be as low as € / $ 100 at higher amounts. Each time a new trade is executed a percentage of your account margin balance will be the initial margin required for a new trade based on the underlying currency pair, current price, and the number of units (or lots) of the trade. . For example, let's say you open a mini account which gives you a leverage of 1: 200 or a margin of 0.5%. Mini accounts work with mini lots. Suppose a mini lot equals $ 10,000. If you are about to open a mini lot, instead of having to invest $ 10,000, you will only need $ 50 ($ 10,000 x 0.5% = $ 50).
Leverage is the ratio of the capital used in a transaction to the required deposit. It is the ability to control large amounts of dollars with relatively less capital. Leverage varies drastically depending on the broker, it can go from 1: 2 to even 1: 2000. The most common level of leverage in Forex can currently be around 1: 200.
• Margin + leverage = dangerous combination
Trading currencies on margin allows you to increase your buying power. This means that if you have $ 5,000 in account margin that allows you a 1: 100 leverage, you can then buy $ 500,000 in foreign exchange as you only have to invest a percentage of the purchase price. Another way of saying this is that you have $ 500,000 in purchasing power. With more purchasing power you can greatly increase your potential profits without an outlay of cash. But be careful, working with a high margin increases your profits but also your losses if the trade does not progress in your favor. >>> Forex Signals With Unbeatable Performance: Verified Forex Results And 5° Rated OnInvesting.com|Free Forex Signals Trial:CLICK HERE TO JOIN FOR FREE
Aight so I need a forex broker. Im in the U.S. so that drops my number of options fast. Ive seen that forex trading with TOS is not that great... unless yall say otherwise? I prefer mt4/5, and I want a broker with no hidden fees, fast execution times, minimal to 0 commissions and variable spread. (not a fixed spread) One of the reasons I dont like TOS are the lot size restrictions, at least in my case. There is a lot of information going back and forth its confusing.
Someone posted on here a few days ago asking about forex and forex trading in Kenya, I have gone through the responses and clearly, most people don’t have an idea. It is 3am in the morning and am in a good mood so let me make this post. This will be a comprehensive and lengthy post so grab a pen and paper and sit down. We’ll be here a while. FIRST OF ALL, who am I..? I am a forex trader, in Nairobi, Kenya..i have been actively involved in forex since I found out about it in Feb 2016 when I somehow ended up in a wealth creation seminar (lol) in pride inn Westlands, the one close to Mpaka Rd. Luckily for me, it was not one of those AIM global meetings or I’d be on Facebook selling God knows what those guys sell. I did not take it seriously till August of the same year and I have been active ever since. I don’t teach, mentor or sell a course or signals, I trade my own money. I am also posting from a throwaway account because I don’t want KRA on my ass. What the fuck is forex and forex trading. In simple plain English, forex is like the stock market but for currencies. Stock Market = Shares, forex = currencies. If you want more in-depth explanation, google is your friend. These currencies are pegged on specific countries, united states- dollar, UK- pound, euro zone- euro, Switzerland- Swiss franc, Kenya- Kenya shilling.. you get the point. Now, there are specific events and happenings between these economies that affect the movement and values of the currencies, driving their value (purchasing power up and down). Forex trading exploits these movements to make money. When the value is going up, we buy and vice versa (down –sell) Is forex trading illegal in Kenya? Is it a scam? Illegal, no. scam, no. All the banks in the world do it (KCB made about 4 billion from trading forex in 2019) Have there been scams involving forex in Kenya? Yes. Here is one that happened recently. This one is the most infamous one yet. Best believe that this is not the end of these type of scams because the stupidity, greed and gullibility of human beings is unfathomable. However, by the end of this post, I hope you won’t fall for such silliness. What next how do I make it work..? Am glad you asked. Generally, there are two ways to go about it. One, you teach yourself. This is the equivalent of stealing our dad’s car and hoping that the pedal you hit is the brake and not the accelerator. It is the route I took, it is the most rewarding and a huge ego boost when you finally make it on your own. Typically, this involves scouring the internet for hours upon hours going down rabbit holes, thinking you have made it telling all your friends how you will be a millionaire then losing all your money. Some people do not have the stomach for that. The second route is more practical, structured and smarter. First Learn the basics. There is a free online forex course at www.babypips.com/learn/forex this is merely an introductory course. Basically it is learning the parts of a car before they let you inside the car. Second, start building your strategy. By the time you are done with the babypips, you will have a feel of what the forex market is, what interests you, etc. Tip..Babypips has a lot of garbage. It is good for introductory purposes but not good for much else, pick whatever stick to you or jumps at you the first time. Nonsense like indicators should be ignored. The next step is now the most important. Developing the skill and building your strategy. As a beginner, you want to exhaust your naivety before jumping into the more advanced stuff. Eg can you identify a trend, what is a pair, what is position sizing, what is metatrader 4 and how to operate it, what news is good for a currency, when can I trade, what are the different trading sessions, what is technical analysis, what is market sentiment, what are bullish conditions what is emotion management, how does my psychology affect my trading (more on this later) an I a swing, scalper or day trader etc Mentors and forex courses.. you have probably seen people advertising how they can teach and mentor you on how to trade forex and charging so much money for it. Somehow it seems that these people are focused on the teaching than the trading. Weird, right..? Truth is trading is hard, teaching not quite. A common saying in the industry is “Those who can’t trade, teach” you want to avoid all these gurus on Facebook and Instagram, some are legit but most are not. Sifting the wheat from the chaff is hard but I did that for you. The info is available online on YouTube, telegram channels etc. am not saying not to spend money on a course, if you find a mentor whose style resonates with you and the course is reasonably priced, please, go ahead and buy..it will cut your learning curve in half. People are different. What worked for me might not work for you. Here are some nice YouTube channels to watch. These guys are legit..
After a short period of time, you will be able to sniff out bs teachers with relative ease. You will also discover some of your own and expand the list. Two tips, start with the oldest videos first and whichever of these resonates with you, stick with till the wheels fall off. How long will it take until things start making sense Give yourself time to grow and learn. This is all new to you and you are allowed to make mistakes, to fail and discover yourself. Realistically, depending on the effort you put in, you will not start seeing results until after 6 months. Could take longeshorter so there is no guarantee. Social media, Mentality, Psychology and Books Online, forex trading might not have the best reputation online because it takes hard work and scammers and gurus give it a bad name. However, try to not get sucked into the Instagram trader lifestyle as it is nowhere close to what the reality is. You will not make millions tomorrow or the day after, you might never even make it in this market. But that is the reality of life. Nothing is promised, nothing is guaranteed. Your mentality, beliefs and ego will be challenged in this market. You will learn things that will make you blood boil, you will ask yourself daily, how is this possible, why don’t they teach this in school..bla bla bla..it will be hard but growth is painful, if it wasn’t we’d all be billionaires. Take a break, take a walk, drink a glass of whatever you like or roll one..detox. Chill with your girl (or man) Gradually you will develop mental toughness that will set you up for life. Personally, I sorta ditched religion and picked up stoicism. Whatever works for you. Psychology, this is unfortunately one of the most neglected aspects of your personal development in this journey. Do you believe in yourself? Can you stand by your convictions when everyone is against you? Can you get up every day uncertain of the future? There will be moments where you will question yourself, am I even doing the right thing? the right way? It is normal and essential for your growth. People who played competitive sports have a natural advantage here. Remember the game is first won in your head then on the pitch. Books: ironically, books that helped me the most were the mindset books, Think and grow rich, trading for a living, 4 hour work week, the monk who sold his Ferrari..just google mindset and psychology books, most trading books are garbage. Watch and listen to people who have made it in the investing business. Ray Dalio, warren, Bill Ackman and Carl Icahn. This is turning out to be lengthier than I anticipated so I’ll try to be brief for the remaining parts. Brokers You will need to open up an account with a broker. Get a broker who is regulated. Australian ones (IC Market and Pepperstone) are both legit, reliable and regulated. Do your research. I’d avoid local ones because I’ve heard stories of wide spreads and liquidity problems. International brokers have never failed me. There are plenty brokers, there is no one size fits all recommendation. If it ain’t broke..don’t fix it. Money transfer. All brokers accept wire transfers, you might need to call your bank to authorize that, avoid Equity bank. Stanchart and Stanbic are alright. Large withdrawals $10k+ you will have to call them prior. Get Skrill and Neteller if you don’t like banks like me, set up a Bitcoin wallet for faster withdrawals, (Payoneer and Paypal are accepted by some brokers, just check with them.) How much money can I make..? I hate this question because people have perceived ceilings of income in their minds, eg 1 million ksh is too much to make per month or 10,000ksh is too little. Instead, work backwards. What % return did I make this month/ on this trade. Safaricom made 19.5% last year, if you make 20% you have outperformed them. If you reach of consistency where you can make x% per month on whatever money you have, then there are no limits to how much you can make. How much money do I need to start with..? Zero. You have all the resources above, go forth. There are brokers who provide free bonuses and withdraw-able profits. However, to make a fulltime income you will need some serious cash. Generally, 50,000 kes. You can start lower or higher but if you need say 20k to live comfortably and that is a 10% return per month, then you can do the math on how big your account should be. Of course things like compound interest come into play but that is dependent on your skill level. I have seen people do spectacular things with very little funds. Taxes..? Talk to a lawyer or an accountant. I am neither. Family? Friends? Unfortunately, people will not understand why you spend hundreds of hours watching strangers on the internet so it is best to keep it from them. Eventually you will make it work and they will come to your corner talking about how they always knew you’d make it. The journey will be lonely, make some trading buddies along the way. You’d be surprised at how easy it is when people are united by their circumstances (and stupidity) I have guys who are my bros from South Africa and Lebanon who I have never met but we came up together and are now homies. Join forums, ask questions and grow. That is the only way to learn. Ideally, a group of 5-10 friends committed to learning and growth is the best model. Pushing each other to grow and discovering together. Forex is real and you can do amazing things with it. It is not a get rich quick scheme. If you want a quick guaranteed income, get a job. And now it is 5am, fuck. This is oversimplified and leaves out many many aspects. Happy to answer any questions.
The majority of this sub is focused on technical analysis. I regularly ridicule such "tea leaf readers" and advocate for trading based on fundamentals and economic news instead, so I figured I should take the time to write up something on how exactly you can trade economic news releases. This post is long as balls so I won't be upset if you get bored and go back to your drooping dick patterns or whatever.
How economic news is released
First, it helps to know how economic news is compiled and released. Let's take Initial Jobless Claims, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits around the United States from Sunday through Saturday. Initial in this context means the first claim for benefits made by an individual during a particular stretch of unemployment. The Initial Jobless Claims figure appears in the Department of Labor's Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report, which compiles information from all of the per-state departments that report to the DOL during the week. A typical number is between 100k and 250k and it can vary quite significantly week-to-week. The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report contains data that lags 5 days behind. For example, the Report issued on Thursday March 26th 2020 contained data about the week ending on Saturday March 21st 2020. In the days leading up to the Report, financial companies will survey economists and run complicated mathematical models to forecast the upcoming Initial Jobless Claims figure. The results of surveyed experts is called the "consensus"; specific companies, experts, and websites will also provide their own forecasts. Different companies will release different consensuses. Usually they are pretty close (within 2-3k), but for last week's record-high Initial Jobless Claims the reported consensuses varied by up to 1M! In other words, there was essentially no consensus. The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is released each Thursday morning at exactly 8:30 AM ET. (On Thanksgiving the Report is released on Wednesday instead.) Media representatives gather at the Frances Perkins Building in Washington DC and are admitted to the "lockup" at 8:00 AM ET. In order to be admitted to the lockup you have to be a credentialed member of a media organization that has signed the DOL lockup agreement. The lockup room is small so there is a limited number of spots. No phones are allowed. Reporters bring their laptops and connect to a local network; there is a master switch on the wall that prevents/enables Internet connectivity on this network. Once the doors are closed the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is distributed, with a heading that announces it is "embargoed" (not to be released) prior to 8:30 AM. Reporters type up their analyses of the report, including extracting key figures like Initial Jobless Claims. They load their write-ups into their companies' software, which prepares to send it out as soon as Internet is enabled. At 8:30 AM the DOL representative in the room flips the wall switch and all of the laptops are connected to the Internet, releasing their write-ups to their companies and on to their companies' partners. Many of those media companies have externally accessible APIs for distributing news. Media aggregators and squawk services (like RanSquawk and TradeTheNews) subscribe to all of these different APIs and then redistribute the key economic figures from the Report to their own subscribers within one second after Internet is enabled in the DOL lockup. Some squawk services are text-based while others are audio-based. FinancialJuice.com provides a free audio squawk service; internally they have a paid subscription to a professional squawk service and they simply read out the latest headlines to their own listeners, subsidized by ads on the site. I've been using it for 4 months now and have been pretty happy. It usually lags behind the official release times by 1-2 seconds and occasionally they verbally flub the numbers or stutter and have to repeat, but you can't beat the price! Important - I’m not affiliated with FinancialJuice and I’m not advocating that you use them over any other squawk. If you use them and they misspeak a number and you lose all your money don’t blame me. If anybody has any other free alternatives please share them!
How the news affects forex markets
Institutional forex traders subscribe to these squawk services and use custom software to consume the emerging data programmatically and then automatically initiate trades based on the perceived change to the fundamentals that the figures represent. It's important to note that every institution will have "priced in" their own forecasted figures well in advance of an actual news release. Forecasts and consensuses all come out at different times in the days leading up to a news release, so by the time the news drops everybody is really only looking for an unexpected result. You can't really know what any given institution expects the value to be, but unless someone has inside information you can pretty much assume that the market has collectively priced in the experts' consensus. When the news comes out, institutions will trade based on the difference between the actual and their forecast. Sometimes the news reflects a real change to the fundamentals with an economic effect that will change the demand for a currency, like an interest rate decision. However, in the case of the Initial Jobless Claims figure, which is a backwards-looking metric, trading is really just self-fulfilling speculation that market participants will buy dollars when unemployment is low and sell dollars when unemployment is high. Generally speaking, news that reflects a real economic shift has a bigger effect than news that only matters to speculators. Massive and extremely fast news-based trades happen within tenths of a second on the ECNs on which institutional traders are participants. Over the next few seconds the resulting price changes trickle down to retail traders. Some economic news, like Non Farm Payroll Employment, has an effect that can last minutes to hours as "slow money" follows behind on the trend created by the "fast money". Other news, like Initial Jobless Claims, has a short impact that trails off within a couple minutes and is subsequently dwarfed by the usual pseudorandom movements in the market. The bigger the difference between actual and consensus, the bigger the effect on any given currency pair. Since economic news releases generally relate to a single currency, the biggest and most easily predicted effects are seen on pairs where one currency is directly effected and the other is not affected at all. Personally I trade USD/JPY because the time difference between the US and Japan ensures that no news will be coming out of Japan at the same time that economic news is being released in the US. Before deciding to trade any particular news release you should measure the historical correlation between the release (specifically, the difference between actual and consensus) and the resulting short-term change in the currency pair. Historical data for various news releases (along with historical consensus data) is readily available. You can pay to get it exported into Excel or whatever, or you can scroll through it for free on websites like TradingEconomics.com. Let's look at two examples: Initial Jobless Claims and Non Farm Payroll Employment (NFP). I collected historical consensuses and actuals for these releases from January 2018 through the present, measured the "surprise" difference for each, and then correlated that to short-term changes in USD/JPY at the time of release using 5 second candles. I omitted any releases that occurred simultaneously as another major release. For example, occasionally the monthly Initial Jobless Claims comes out at the exact same time as the monthly Balance of Trade figure, which is a more significant economic indicator and can be expected to dwarf the effect of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report. USD/JPY correlation with Initial Jobless Claims (2018 - present) USD/JPY correlation with Non Farm Payrolls (2018 - present) The horizontal axes on these charts is the duration (in seconds) after the news release over which correlation was calculated. The vertical axis is the Pearson correlation coefficient: +1 means that the change in USD/JPY over that duration was perfectly linearly correlated to the "surprise" in the releases; -1 means that the change in USD/JPY was perfectly linearly correlated but in the opposite direction, and 0 means that there is no correlation at all. For Initial Jobless Claims you can see that for the first 30 seconds USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the difference between consensus and actual jobless claims. That is, fewer-than-forecast jobless claims (fewer newly unemployed people than expected) strengthens the dollar and greater-than-forecast jobless claims (more newly unemployed people than expected) weakens the dollar. Correlation then trails off and changes to a moderate/weak positive correlation. I interpret this as algorithms "buying the dip" and vice versa, but I don't know for sure. From this chart it appears that you could profit by opening a trade for 15 seconds (duration with strongest correlation) that is long USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is lower than the consensus and short USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is higher than expected. The chart for Non Farm Payroll looks very different. Correlation is positive (higher-than-expected payrolls strengthen the dollar and lower-than-expected payrolls weaken the dollar) and peaks at around 45 seconds, then slowly decreases as time goes on. This implies that price changes due to NFP are quite significant relative to background noise and "stick" even as normal fluctuations pick back up. I wanted to show an example of what the USD/JPY S5 chart looks like when an "uncontested" (no other major simultaneously news release) Initial Jobless Claims and NFP drops, but unfortunately my broker's charts only go back a week. (I can pull historical data going back years through the API but to make it into a pretty chart would be a bit of work.) If anybody can get a 5-second chart of USD/JPY at March 19, 2020, UTC 12:30 and/or at February 7, 2020, UTC 13:30 let me know and I'll add it here.
So without too much effort we determined that (1) USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the Initial Jobless Claims figure for the first 15 seconds after the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report (when no other major news is being released) and also that (2) USD/JPY is strongly positively correlated with the Non Farms Payroll figure for the first 45 seconds after the release of the Employment Situation report. Before you can assume you can profit off the news you have to backtest and consider three important parameters. Entry speed: How quickly can you realistically enter the trade? The correlation performed above was measured from the exact moment the news was released, but realistically if you've got your finger on the trigger and your ear to the squawk it will take a few seconds to hit "Buy" or "Sell" and confirm. If 90% of the price move happens in the first second you're SOL. For back-testing purposes I assume a 5 second delay. In practice I use custom software that opens a trade with one click, and I can reliably enter a trade within 2-3 seconds after the news drops, using the FinancialJuice free squawk. Minimum surprise: Should you trade every release or can you do better by only trading those with a big enough "surprise" factor? Backtesting will tell you whether being more selective is better long-term or not. Hold time: The optimal time to hold the trade is not necessarily the same as the time of maximum correlation. That's a good starting point but it's not necessarily the best number. Backtesting each possible hold time will let you find the best one. The spread: When you're only holding a position open for 30 seconds, the spread will kill you. The correlations performed above used the midpoint price, but in reality you have to buy at the ask and sell at the bid. Brokers aren't stupid and the moment volume on the ECN jumps they will widen the spread for their retail customers. The only way to determine if the news-driven price movements reliably overcome the spread is to backtest. Stops: Personally I don't use stops, neither take-profit nor stop-loss, since I'm automatically closing the trade after a fixed (and very short) amount of time. Additionally, brokers have a minimum stop distance; the profits from scalping the news are so slim that even the nearest stops they allow will generally not get triggered. I backtested trading these two news releases (since 2018), using a 5 second entry delay, real historical spreads, and no stops, cycling through different "surprise" thresholds and hold times to find the combination that returns the highest net profit. It's important to maximize net profit, not expected value per trade, so you don't over-optimize and reduce the total number of trades taken to one single profitable trade. If you want to get fancy you can set up a custom metric that combines number of trades, expected value, and drawdown into a single score to be maximized. For the Initial Jobless Claims figure I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 25 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 30 seconds elapsed) and only trade when the difference between consensus and actual is 7k or higher. That leads to 30 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... drumroll please... -0.0093 yen per unit per trade. Yep, that's a loss of approx. $8.63 per lot. Disappointing right? That's the spread and that's why you have to backtest. Even though the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report has a strong correlation with movement in USD/JPY, it's simply not something that a retail trader can profit from. Let's turn to the NFP. There I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 75 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 80 seconds elapsed) and trade every single NFP (no minimum "surprise" threshold). That leads to 20 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... drumroll please... +0.1306 yen per unit per trade. That's a profit of approx. $121.25 per lot. Not bad for 75 seconds of work! That's a +6% ROI at 50x leverage.
Make it real
If you want to do this for realsies, you need to run these numbers for all of the major economic news releases. Markit Manufacturing PMI, Factory Orders MoM, Trade Balance, PPI MoM, Export and Import Prices, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Retail Sales MoM, Industrial Production MoM, you get the idea. You keep a list of all of the releases you want to trade, when they are released, and the ideal hold time and "surprise" threshold. A few minutes before the prescribed release time you open up your broker's software, turn on your squawk, maybe jot a few notes about consensuses and model forecasts, and get your finger on the button. At the moment you hear the release you open the trade in the correct direction, hold it (without looking at the chart!) for the required amount of time, then close it and go on with your day. Some benefits of trading this way: * Most major economic releases come out at either 8:30 AM ET or 10:00 AM ET, and then you're done for the day. * It's easily backtestable. You can look back at the numbers and see exactly what to expect your return to be. * It's fun! Packing your trading into 30 seconds and knowing that institutions are moving billions of dollars around as fast as they can based on the exact same news you just read is thrilling. * You can wow your friends by saying things like "The St. Louis Fed had some interesting remarks on consumer spending in the latest Beige Book." * No crayons involved. Some downsides: * It's tricky to be fast enough without writing custom software. Some broker software is very slow and requires multiple dialog boxes before a position is opened, which won't cut it. * The profits are very slim, you're not going to impress your instagram followers to join your expensive trade copying service with your 30-second twice-weekly trades. * Any friends you might wow with your boring-ass economic talking points are themselves the most boring people in the world. I hope you enjoyed this long as fuck post and you give trading economic news a try!
If you have been involved in online trading for some time, chances are you have used the MT5 software. Even if you are new to online trading, I am sure you have heard about MT5 from more experienced traders in your network. But the platform isn’t just popular for no reason. Both traders and brokers find it useful because:
It has impressive functionalities that you can’t get on any other platform
It is openly available to all brokers and traders.
However, that is not all there is to MT5. So this post will be looking at some exciting things about MetaTrader 5, including:
The types of account it offers
Basic terms every professional trader should know
Before we delve into highlighting the features, let’s look at what MetaTrader 5 really is. So what is MT5? MetaTrader is a multi-asset platform that offers traders the tools to trade forex, stocks, and futures. The first version of the software, MT4, was created in 2005 by MetaQuotes Software Corporation. The second version, MT5, was released in 2010 to offer more functionalities and better trading experience to users and brokers. With the history out of the way, let’s look at the features that make MT5 the software of choice for most brokers and traders. 5 features of MT5 that make it the market leader
Multi-asset trading platform
Automated trades to test trading strategies
Automated bots by experts
Hedging and netting allowed
21 time-frames — from minutes to years
The 3 types of MT5 accounts available on Deriv.com One of the things that have made MT5 very popular is its open-source nature. This has allowed different brokers to integrate it into their respective trading platform. But at Deriv.com, we didn’t just integrate MT5 into our platform. We blended the powerful functionalities of the MT5 with our experience as pioneers in the online trading industry and we call it — DMT5 an all-in-one forex and CFD trading platform. When you trade with DMT5, you have the option to choose from three different account types, each designed to appeal to traders with varying styles of trading and experience. The three account types are explained in the images below. Types of DMT5 account DMT5 Accounts It is worthy to note that synthetic indices are only available to Deriv.com traders and can be traded even on weekends. Another point to note is that while Deriv.com created the synthetic indices algorithm, the market mimics the real-world financial market. Lastly, let’s look at some of the terms that you should know if you want to succeed in online trading. Basic terms every professional trader should know 1. Leverage Leverage gives you the ability to trade a larger position using your existing capital. 2. Order execution There are two types of order execution: instant execution and market execution. Instant execution places your order at the price available at that time. Requotes are possible only if the price fluctuates by a lot before the execution of the order is completed. Market execution allows you to place an order at the broker’s price. The price is agreed upon in advance, there are no requotes. 3. Spread A ‘spread’ is the difference between the buy and sell prices. A fixed spread is subject to changes at the company’s absolute discretion, whereas a variable spread means that the spread is constantly changing. A fixed spread is not affected by market conditions, a variable spread depends on market conditions. 4. Commission Brokers usually charge a commission for each trade that is placed. Deriv.com, however, charges no commission across all account types, except cryptocurrencies. 5. Margin call Your account is placed under margin call when the funds in your account are unable to cover the leverage or margin requirement. To prevent a margin call from escalating to a stop out level, close any open positions, or deposit additional funds into your account. 6. Stop out level Your account will reach the stop out level where it will be unable to sustain any open positions if it has been under margin call for an extended period of time. This will lead to all pending orders being canceled and open positions being closed forcibly (also known as “forced liquidation”). 7. Cryptocurrency trading Indicates the availability of cryptocurrency trading on a particular account. These are the basic things you should know about MT5. If you are new to online trading, we highly recommend you read the following posts: https://medium.com/@derivdotcom/things-you-need-to-know-about-mt5-961b2665a4fb
Hey Forex sub, I am currently on my search for a Broker (might start a demo first, but nonetheless wanna pick a broker first.I am almost done with the babypips course and wanna chose a broker and maybe open an account (100 to 500 euros, can afford to waste it). I am however still hesitant choosing between those brokers and would be glad to get some input from you guys, especially on darwinex and ig, cuz im kinda already fixated on XTB. Its really hard finding all that intel, cuz some websites sure are hiding them behind 15 or so clicks. Darwinex: Order comissions (might affect overall cost due to small account size, so kinda alrdy out if you guys dont have any convincing arguments), 500 Euro minimum account size IG: free withdrawal only over 150 euro, £250 minimum account size XTB: fixed spreads on basic account, free withdrawal over 80 euro, no minimum account size
The offshore FX and CFDs broker StockGlobal offers many trading accounts on the MetaTrader trading platform. The Marshell Islands-based Longsdale Capital LTD manages the StockGlobal brand. The trading conditions are high on each of the four trading accounts. In this StockGlobal review, we will discuss other offerings and problems associated with this broker. About StockGlobal: The four accounts namely Bronze, Silver, Gold, and Platinum are offered by this broker with the initial investment ranging from $250 to $50000. Furthermore, the level of provided spreads ranges from 2.8 pips to 0.1 pips according to the chosen trading account. The leverage levels are fixed at 1:300 on all four accounts. The world's number one trading platform MetaTrader is offered by StockGlobal. The provided leverage is high and several traders will be attracted to these high leverages provided by StockGlobal. Such high leverage can cause harm to investments. The offered CFDs at StockGlobal are on FX pairs, shares, binary options, commodities, indexes, etc. As discussed in the opening and considering information on the broker's website the manager of StockGlobal, Longsdale Capital LTD, is situated in the Marshall Islands. Marshell Island is a very popular destination amongst the scam brokers. Also, the traders operating from this island do not follow any brokerage regulations and licensing required very little documentation. Also, such brokers are strictly banned in regulated markets like the EU, Japan, the US, and more. The safety and security of the investment made in StockGlobal by traders are prone to scam. The StockGlobal is accused of scam by several online forums. Also, the Belgian local financial authority the Financial Services and Markets Authority issued warnings against the broker. The provided spreads of 2.8 pips on EUUSD FX pair is also considered high. Most of the regulated brokers provide spreads around 0.1 pips on Euro/Dollar FX pair. Furthermore, the website claims other trading conditions and a demo account provides different trading condition. This looks like a Ponzi scheme to attract traders. The offered MetaTrader platform is managed by another firm that also manages several other scam brokers.
Is StockGlobal scam or legit?
The broker is situated on Marshell Island, which is heaven for the scammer. The broker is also not regulated and doesn’t have a valid license. The offered trading conditions are designed in such a way that traders can be attracted. Overall the StockGlobal gives an impression of a forex scam broker.
The offshore FX and CFDs broker WISEBANC is managed from Bulgaria. The limited information display raises questions on this from the beginning. This broker features four international offices in the big economies like Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, and South Africa. We also felt that this multinational impression of WISEBANC is also fishy. For the same reason, we decided to do this WISEBANC review to know more about this broker.
About WISEBANC :
Upon investigation, it was clear that the broker is unregulated by FSC, the Bulgarian financial authority. The broker features several attractive bonuses and promotional offers. WISEBANC promotes to offer a $250 signup bonus to all subscribers. But the real snag is, to be eligible for the withdrawal of these bonuses, the equitable amount of trading points must be earned. The five trading accounts are similar to that of other brokers namely Basic, Bronze, Silver, Gold, and Platinum. The log in amount is $250, $1000, $2500, $5000, and $10000, and the provided ratio of leverage is 1:500. It also has maximum fixed spreads of 7, 6, 5, 4, and 3 pips and the welcome bonuses of 40, 50, 60, 80, and 100 % respectively. It provides special forex signal service to its premium customers. The deposit of $250 is incomparable considering the unregulated nature of the broker. The only advantage we came across is the leverage levels but it can become disadvantageous if precaution is not taken. As they can drain your trading account in a blink of an eye. Also, the most famous trading platform MetaTrader4 is not supported by this broker. Nonetheless, traders will feel forced to use the broker’s platform as the platform Is slow and crashes continuously. Also, A-1 features in MT are not present in the provided platform. The web is filled with several scams and fraud feedbacks for this multinational broker. The payment and withdrawal gateways are cards, Neteller, wire transfers, and many more.
Is WISEBANC scam or legit??
The only good thing about WISEBANC is its steep levels of leverages. Unfortunately, this advantage has its drawbacks as with high profit is also associated with a huge loss. The spreads available increases the cost of trading. We could not find anything special about WISEBANC but found several resemblances with scam brokers like false advertising, unregulated, providing unusual trading conditions are few to mention. Avoid it can save the reader’s money and time.
u/OK-Face made a post with some questions about limits and stop orders. I started to write up a big comment but then figured I’d just create an “Orders 101” post in case other newbies might find it useful. If you don’t like massive walls of text, now is the time to leave! The very basics First you need to know a little about forex market makers. A market maker publishes two prices: the bid price (lower) and the ask price (higher). The market maker will sell you units of a currency pair at the higher ask price, and will buy units of a currency pair back from you at the lower bid price. They make money by buying units at the bid from one user and selling those units at the ask to another user, pocketing the difference. The difference between the bid and the ask is called the spread. A narrow spread is good for users. If you buy at the ask (or sell at the bid) you only need the bid (ask) to move upwards (downwards) a little bit before you can sell (buy) back to the market maker to close the position for a profit. The spread will vary over time; the market maker wants to keep it narrow to compete for customers but wide enough to ensure they make money even when the market moves unexpectedly. When the market is stable the spread will be narrow; when the market is volatile the spread will be wide. When someone refers to the price of a currency pair you can usually infer which price (the bid or the ask) they are referring to from the context. If they’re talking about going long (buying) then they are probably referencing the ask. If they are talking about going short (selling) then they are probably referencing the bid. Broker software usually allows you to plot both at the same time, which visualizes not only the prices by the spread (and thus the market maker’s measure of volatility). The “market price” or “mark” is the midpoint between the bid and ask. It’s sometimes used when charting prices, since it smoothes out changes in the spread. The details of where the bid and ask prices come from, how they differ between market makers and from inter-bank rates, and how they are related to but very different from bid/ask spreads on exchange-traded instruments like stocks are all well beyond the scope of this post. (But you should learn it eventually!) Opening and closing a position First, burn it into your brain that a long position is opened by buying from the market maker at the ask and closed by selling back to the market maker at the bid, while a short position is opened by selling to the market maker at the bid and closed by buying back from the market maker at the ask. (Really a short position is a loan from the market maker that you can satisfy with units of currency pairs bought back from them at a later time. But whatever.) When you open a new position you use one of two types of orders: a market order or a limit order. A market order tells the market maker to fill your order as soon as your order gets to the front of the queue, no matter what the price is. If it’s a market buy to go long on a pair then the order will be filled at the ask price. If it’s a market sell to go short on a pair then the order will be filled at the bid price. The time it takes your order to get to the front of the queue is usually less than a second, but the price could change pretty dramatically in that second. A market order says “I don’t care what happens to the price between now and then, just fill my order as quickly as possible.” A limit order goes through the order queue too, but when it reaches the front it tells the market maker to wait to fill your order until an acceptable (to you) price is available. If it’s a limit buy to go long on a pair then you specify the maximum ask price you are willing to pay. If it’s a limit sell to go short on a pair then you specify the minimum bid price you are willing to accept. If the price is already acceptable then the order is filled immediately just like a market order, otherwise it waits until it’s filled or canceled. When you close a position you can also choose a market order or a limit order. If you have a long position then you can either submit a market sell order or a limit sell order to sell back your units at the bid. If you have a short position then you can either submit a market buy order or a limit buy order to buy back the units you shorted at the ask. These orders work just like orders to open a position, but instead of creating a new position they cancel out your existing position. (Hopefully leaving you with a profit.) It is possible to submit offsetting orders that don’t actually cancel out one another! For example, a market maker may allow you to submit a market buy order to go long one lot of EUUSD and then separately submit a market sell order to go short one lot of EUUSD, and track those two positions separately rather than cancel them out. For this reason an order used to close out a position is sometimes clarified as “to close”, as in “market sell to close”. Most users will close positions by right-clicking the position in their broker’s GUI and click “close” (or something similar); this will automatically submit a market order (buy or sell) to close. Submitting a limit order to close may take more clicks. Conditional orders to close When you create an order you can attach conditional orders to close that are only submitted if the bid or ask price moves past a trigger price. You specify the trigger price and the type of order to be submitted when the trigger hits: market or limit. There are four possible combinations, but only three are commonly used. A conditional market order to close a losing position is called a stop-loss order. A conditional limit order to close a losing position is called a stop-limit order. A conditional market order to close a winning position doesn’t have a name and isn’t commonly used. A conditional limit order to close a winning position is called a take-profit order. Generally the trigger price is compared to the price (bid or ask) that will be used to close the position. For example, a long position is closed by selling at the bid, so the trigger price for a stop-loss on a long position will be compared to the bid. Some market makers will allow you to get fancy and decide which price your trigger is compared to, which may be useful if, for example, your strategy is entirely based on the ask price but you want to use a conditional order to close a long position without worrying about the spread. Let’s look at the three common conditional orders to close, from simplest to confusing. Stop-loss orders A stop-loss order is a conditional market order to close a losing position. The trigger price is set on the losing side of the position. When the bid/ask price passes the trigger price, a new market order is created to close the position. Like any market order, it is filled at whatever the bid/ask price is when the order makes it to the front of the queue. For a long position the trigger price is less than the original ask price at which the currency pair was bought. A long position is closed by selling at the bid, so the trigger price is usually compared to the bid. When the bid price falls down to the trigger price a new market sell (to close) order is submitted. When it reaches the front of the queue it’s filled at the current bid, offsetting the position. For a short position the trigger price is greater than the original bid price at which the currency pair was sold short. A short position is closed by buying at the ask, so the trigger price is usually compared to the ask. When the ask price rises up to the trigger price a new market buy (to close) order is submitted. When it reaches the front of the queue it’s filled at the current ask, offsetting the position. Stop-loss orders are used as a last resort: “If my losses get too big close the position as fast as possible, even if that means closing at a less advantageous price.” It’s not uncommon for the bid/ask price to shoot past the trigger price so quickly that the price at which the position closes is quite a bit worse than the trigger price. On the other hand, it’s also not uncommon for the price to just barely touch the trigger price (triggering the placement of the market order to close) and bounce back, so that the price at which the position closes is better than the target price. (This latter scenario can sometimes make people wonder why the position was closed, since it may appear that the price never reached the trigger.) Take-profit orders A take-profit order is a conditional limit order to close a winning position. The trigger price is set on the winning side of the position. When the bid/ask price passes the trigger price, a new limit order is created to close the position. Like any limit order, it is only filled when the bid/ask price is better for the customer than the specified limit price. The limit price for a take-profit order is usually the same as the trigger price. (Some market makers may allow it to be different.) For a long position the trigger (and limit) price is greater than the original ask price at which the currency pair was bought. A long position is closed by selling at the bid, so the trigger price is usually compared to the bid. When the bid price rises up to the trigger price a new limit buy (to close) order is submitted. When it reaches the front of the queue it waits until the current bid is at least equal to the limit price, then it fills and offsets the position. For a short position the trigger (and limit) price is less than the original bid price at which the currency pair was sold short. A short position is closed by buying at the ask, so the trigger price is usually compared to the ask. When the ask price falls down to the trigger price a new limit sell (to close) order is submitted. When it reaches the front of the queue it waits until the current ask is at most equal to the limit price, then it fills and offsets the position. Since the limit price is usually set equal to the trigger price, and since the bid/ask price doesn’t usually reverse within the short time while the new order (to close) moves through the queue, a take-profit order usually closes almost immediately after being triggered, at a price at or very slightly above the triggelimit price. However it is possible that the bid/ask price just touched the trigger price and immediately reverses, leaving the limit order (to close) pending on the queue until the price moves favorably again. Stop-limit orders Finally we come to the confusing one. A stop-limit order is a conditional limit order to close a losing position. The trigger price is set on the losing side of the position. When the bid/ask price passes the trigger price, a new limit order is created to close the position. Like any limit order, it is only filled when the bid/ask price is better for the customer than the specified limit price. Unlike a take-profit order, the limit price for a stop-limit order is usually not the same as the trigger price. For a long position the trigger (and limit) price is less than the original ask price at which the currency pair was bought. A long position is closed by selling at the bid, so the trigger price is usually compared to the bid. When the bid price falls down to the trigger price a new limit sell (to close) order is submitted. When it reaches the front of the queue it waits until the current bid is at least equal to the limit price, then it fills and offsets the position. For a short position the trigger (and limit) price is greater than the original bid price at which the currency pair was sold short. A short position is closed by buying at the ask, so the trigger price is usually compared to the ask. When the ask price rises up to the trigger price a new limit buy (to close) order is submitted. When it reaches the front of the queue it waits until the current ask is at most equal to the limit price, then it fills and offsets the position. On first blush this appears to be the opposite of a take-profit order, but it behaves quite differently. Take a long position for example, and consider what happens when the bid price moves quickly down past the trigger and continues to fall. The limit sell order (to close) is submitted but suppose the limit is set close to the trigger price. Since the bid is still falling it’s on the wrong side of the limit price (for the customer) so the limit order won’t fill. A stop-limit order says “If I’m losing money and the price moves to X, try to close my position, but don’t accept anything too much worse than X.” Because a rapid price movement may pass both the trigger and the limit, the limit needs to be set carefully to give a little “breathing room” for the limit in case of rapid price movement. Stop-limit orders require careful calculation of triggers and limits to fix risk, or you can end up closing a position early, too late, or not at all! Final thoughts I hope you learned something! At the very least, I hope some newbies see that setting stop-losses, stop-limits, and take-profits involves a lot more math and understanding of the mechanics of the market than thinking “this looks like a good place to limit my losses” and clicking the mouse. Corrections are highly appreciated! I intentionally glossed over a ton of details but if in doing so I omitted something important please let me know!
Dans la logique de mon post sur la vulgarisation du marché monétaire, voici une vulgarisation de la finance dans sa globalité. Avant de me lancer dans le vif du sujet, je tiens à clarifier des notions importantes qui pourraient porter à confusion et que je sais que je verrai dans les commentaires. Je vais aussi vous donner un peu mon opinion personnelle pour éviter tout malentendu dans la discussion, sautez cette partie si ça ne vous intéresse pas. Si la modération trouve que c'est trop hors-sujet, libre à elle de supprimer le post. J’ai entendu vos critiques dans les commentaires, j’avoue que j’ai vraiment trop simplifié certains passages, j’avais peur que le post soit trop long et trop technique, parfois au prix de la précision et de la rigueur, mea culpa. Cette fois-ci j’ai fait le choix de faire une synthèse des différents marchés financiers, qui régissent l’allocation des ressources financières dans notre société. Nombre d’entre vous ont dû entendre parler de certains d’entre eux, peut-être que vous participez à certains. Toutefois, comme dans mon autre post, je tiens à faire une précision importante. Les informations que je vous donne ici sont grandement insuffisantes pour que vous vous lanciez sur ces marchés, sans que cela s’apparente à une soirée au Monte Carlo pour votre portefeuille. Je ne vous incite aucunement à le faire, mon but étant uniquement d’éclairer ce qui se passe sur les marchés financiers, je n’ai aucune participation à quoi que ce soit, je ne suis pas rémunéré et je ne cherche pas à vendre ou à promouvoir quoi que ce soit. Je ne serai pas 100% exhaustif mais je ferai de mon mieux pour éclairer des sujets que vous pouvez parfois rencontrer dans la presse. Encore une fois, les questions et les remarques sont la bienvenue. Un marché financier est une notion très abstraite somme toute, il s’agît de l’ensemble des acteurs, des informations et des outils qui font que l’offre (d’actifs) et la demande (le capital) se rencontrent. Ce n’est pas à confondre avec une bourse, qui est un lieu physique (et maintenant virtuel) où se rencontrent l’offre et la demande, ou une place financière, qui est une ville qui regroupe un grand nombre de marchés financiers et d’acteurs majeurs. Quand votre tonton vous prête 10k EUR pour que vous lanciez votre site d’e-commerce, ou que vous déposez de l’argent à la banque, vous participez à un marché financier. Au fil de l’histoire, différents outils financiers ont fait leur apparition, parfois graduellement, parfois brusquement sous l’impulsion de génies/fous (souvent des mathématiciens) et ont conféré des propriétés particulières aux marchés financiers. Il s’agît entre autres de la capacité à : - Investitransférer le capital et les liquidités inutilisés - Transférer le risque entre participants - Echanger à l’international - Eviter qu’il y ait trop de disparités entre les prix dans le marché, et qu’ils suivent (plus ou moins bien) la valeur intrinsèque. Un marché efficace est par définition un marché qui reflète bien la valeur intrinsèque d'un investissement compte-tenu des informations disponibles. Des inefficacités peuvent surgir de coûts de transaction et/ou de frais d'agence élevés, de la faible liquidité des actifs ou encore à cause de barrières de toutes sortes. A mon humble avis, dans une économie de marché, il est dans l’intérêt public à ce que certains marchés soient efficaces pour que les inégalités économiques ne soient pas amplifiées et que toutes les classes sociales puissent y avoir accès, tant que cela ne se nuit pas indirectement à la société. Parlons maintenant de prix et de valeur intrinsèque. La valeur intrinsèque d’un actif ou d’un instrument financier est la valeur financière (et parfois non-financière) future qu’il procurera, compte tenu de l’incertitude qu’il y a autour de la capacité de l’actif à réaliser cette valeur à l’avenir. La valeur intrinsèque est subjective car elle dépend de l’acheteur, principalement de son aversion et de sa capacité à encaisser le risque, mais pas que, comme nous allons le voir. Le prix reflète entre autres l’offre et la demande de l’actif, plus précisément les informations qu’ont les acheteurs, leurs biais et les barrières à la transaction, c’est pour cela qu’il peut dévier, parfois fortement, de la valeur intrinsèque. La valeur intrinsèque est fondamentalement impossible à connaître, mais cela ne veut pas dire qu’il n’y a pas de modèles mathématiques ou qualitatifs pour tenter de l’estimer. Ce qu’on appelle un acteur rationnel c’est un participant qui va, compte tenu de son capital, de ses besoins de liquidité, de son horizon d’investissement et de son aversion au risque (qui est une caractéristique rationnelle) acheter les actifs dont le prix est en-dessous de la valeur intrinsèque qu’il leur assigne et vendre ceux dont le prix est au-dessus de cette valeur. Je ne crois pas qu’il y ait une façon non biaisée de présenter la finance alors je vais vous donner mon biais. Je crois personnellement en la finance comportementale et ce que je vais dire dans ce paragraphe est très controversé et mériterait toute une vie de recherche pour justifier (on peut en reparler dans les commentaires). Il faut savoir qu’il y a des paramètres anthropologiques (psychologiques, sociologiques, culturels, religieux et géographiques) qui viennent affecter les marchés, notamment leur efficacité, et les financiers et les régulateurs peuvent aborder le problème de plusieurs façons. Parfois on va trouver des intermédiaires qui vont faire fi de ces barrières, parfois on va tenter d’anonymiser les participants, parfois on va trouver un moyen de diffuser l’information à tous les participants, parfois on va réguler pour empêcher certains comportements nuisibles ou illégaux, ou bien on va créer des outils ou des stratagèmes pour contourner les barrières sans les effacer. La désintermédiation, la dérèglementation et le décloisonnement, ainsi que la volonté d’atteindre la concurrence pure et parfaite, ne sont pas toujours les meilleurs moyens d’avoir des marchés efficaces. Il faudrait que toutes les barrières socioculturelles, tous les biais psychologiques des participants des marchés disparaissent pour que cela puisse se faire, ce qui n’est évidemment ni souhaitable ni possible. Le début est un peu technique mais est crucial pour que vous compreniez la suite. Premièrement, je vais vous parler de la notion de marché primaire et de marché secondaire, qui détermine où est transféré le capital et le risque. Deuxièmement, je vais vous parler de l’organisation et de la régulation des marchés. Troisièmement, je vais vous parler de la classification des marchés en fonction des instruments financiers qui s’y échangent et dernièrement je vais vous parler de la classification des marchés en fonction des actifs qui s’y échangent. A – Les marchés primaires, secondaires, tertiaires et quaternaires. Le marché primaire est le marché qui fait rencontrer ceux qui vont fournir des actions ou des obligations de leur propre entreprise, des matières premières ou autres actifs, en échange de capital. Quand une entreprise ou un Etat lèvent des fonds ils participent sur ce marché, quand une société d’exploitation de pétrole brut vend ses barils elle y participe aussi. Quand vous prêtez de l’argent à votre pote, ou que vous achetez une maison neuve à un promoteur immobilier vous participez au marché primaire. En général, il s’agît d’un marché désorganisé où des particuliers et des entreprises se rencontrent par leurs propres moyens (bouche à oreille, publicité) et qui est très peu régulé, qu’on appelle gré-à-gré, que j’expliciterai bientôt. Ce marché est relativement risqué et peu transparent, en général votre seul recours juridique est le civil et si votre contrepartie fait faillite vous n’avez aucune garantie de pouvoir récupérer votre dû. Il demande de faire confiance à votre contrepartie, d’être compétent et parfois spécialisé dans ce domaine ainsi que d’être particulièrement critique des informations que l’on vous donne. Quand il est organisé, il s’agît le plus souvent d’une vente aux enchères entre participants agréés. Le marché secondaire est le marché où les actifs sont revendus entre investisseurs, ici le capital et le risque sont transférés d’un investisseur à un autre. Ce marché a plusieurs fonctions, il permet entre autres aux investisseurs de sortir du marché quand ils en ont envie, de standardiser et regrouper les actifs, d’actualiser le prix des actifs en fonction des événements et de permettre à un plus grand nombre d’investisseurs de détenir certains actifs qui leur serait parfois impossible d’obtenir faute de contacts ou de moyens. Si une action ou une obligation est échangée sur le marché secondaire, cela veut dire que l’entreprise sous-jacente a donné son accord à ce qu’elle renonce à choisir qui détient ses parts ou sa dette (à quelques exceptions près), elle n’est pas affectée directement par la transaction. Le marché secondaire est le plus souvent organisé et régulé, moyennant commission. Il est le plus souvent organisé dans un type d’enchère très particulier qu’on appelle bourse, ou bien d’un marché organisé par un courtier. Je parle brièvement du marché tertiaire et du marché quaternaire car vous pourrez peut-être en entendre parler, le marché tertiaire est le marché où les courtiers interagissent avec les grosses institutions (souvent des banques) et le marché quaternaire est le marché entre grosses institutions uniquement. Ce sont des marchés gré-à-gré. B – L’organisation et la régulation des marchés Le marché le plus basique est le marché gré-à-gré ou over the counter (OTC) en anglais. Comme je l’ai dit plus haut, ce marché n’est pas organisé, il est sans intermédiaires. Pour y participer il faut trouver des contreparties par ses propres moyens, chercher les informations par soi-même et surtout faire confiance à la personne en face, chose qui n’est pas toujours facile. C’est surtout sur ce marché que se manifestent les barrières anthropologiques et les biais psychologiques car il y a peu de moyens de réguler ce qui s’y passe ou d’être sûr des informations que l’on a. Bien évidemment il existe des lois et des garde-fous juridiques ou médiatiques, mais vous êtes libres de rédiger n’importe quel contrat légal sur ce marché. C’est d’ailleurs ici que vous verrez les instruments financiers les plus complexes comme les options exotiques ou les swaps. Sur le marché gré-à-gré on dit que la liquidité est faible, comme vous avez souvent affaire à des actifs uniques (startups, œuvres d’art, options exotiques) que très peu de personnes convoitent, ce qui fait qu’il est coûteux et long de trouver des acheteurs, et ce qui pousse les prix à la hausse. Je ne vais pas m’attarder dessus car il y a énormément à dire dessus, mais la vente aux enchères est une forme d’organisation des marchés. Vous y trouverez par exemple les obligations souveraines, les œuvres d’art ou bien, lors d’une introduction en bourse d’une entreprise, des actions sont attribuées aux premiers actionnaires via une enchère, ce qui permet de déterminer le prix initial de l’action en bourse. Si cela vous intéresse, regardez les différents types de vente aux enchères comme l’enchère anglaise ou l’enchère néerlandaise. Ici vous avez quelques intermédiaires qui rentrent en jeux comme le commissaire-priseur ou la banque d’investissement pour l’introduction en bourse, qui vont prendre leur commission en échange de la publicité qu’ils fournissent à votre actif et de la facilitation de la transaction – autrement dit de la liquidité. Il est à noter qu’un commissaire-priseur qui tient à sa réputation va exiger certaines contraintes et garanties sur l’actif, ce qui donne un début de régulation au marché financier. Dans le cas d’une introduction en bourse (Initial Public Offering ou IPO), les exigences sont draconiennes, les comptes financiers, les cadres dirigeants de l’entreprise et les actionnaires actuels sont scrutés à la fois par l’Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) en France, et les analystes financiers. La bourse est une forme d’enchère très spécifique. Elle rassemble des traders qui travaillent pour des courtiers ou des sociétés de gestion d’actifs et fonctionne avec une enchère dite continue/dirigée par ordres et est chapeautée par l’AMF en France. Les traders donnent des ordres de vente et d’achat – soit ils donnent un prix et achètent ou vendent tout ce qui est à un prix meilleur ou égal, soit ils spécifient une quantité et achètent ou vendent peu importe le prix, il existe aussi des ordres plus complexes où l’on spécifie un prix, une quantité et une date limite, entre autres. La bourse génère des profits en prenant une commission sur chaque ordre et à chaque fois qu’une nouvelle entreprise rentre sur le marché s’il s’agît d’une bouse d’actions. Ici il n’y a pas un prix unique pour un actif, il y a le prix de la demande (ask) et le prix de l’offre (bid) – il faut proposer un prix égal ou supérieur à l’ask pour pouvoir acheter l’actif et un prix inférieur ou égal au bid pour pouvoir le vendre. Un des effets de cette structure de marché (qui peut paraître contre-intuitif pour ceux habitués au marché gré-à-gré) est que plus on veut acheter une grande quantité de l’actif, plus il va falloir proposer un prix élevé, et inversement plus l’on veut en vendre, plus il va falloir baisser son prix. La bourse crée un peu plus de symétrie entre les acheteurs et les vendeurs, ce qui n’existe pas dans le marché gré-à-gré où l’avantage est déterminé largement par le contrôle qu’ont les acheteurs et les vendeurs sur le marché et l’information en circulation. Le rapport de force ne disparaît pas entièrement mais est artificiellement atténué. Cela fait aussi que si beaucoup d’acheteurs et vendeurs sont intéressés par un actif et que beaucoup d’ordres circulent, statistiquement la différence entre le bid et l’ask sera plus faible, c’est pour cela qu’on mesure traditionnellement la liquidité d’un actif en bourse par la différence entre le bid et l’ask, qu’on appelle le « bid-ask spread », par la moyenne du bid et de l’ask. En exigeant une forte transparence, en attirant des analystes financiers, les autorités des marchés et les médias, la bourse est un peu moins risquée que le marché gré-à-gré, permet d’avoir une meilleure idée de la valeur intrinsèque et surtout une bien meilleure liquidité, bien sûr à un prix. Bien sûr, le risque propre aux rendements futurs de l’investissement n’est pas vraiment affecté et jouer en bourse reste relativement risqué, voir même à espérance négative dans le cas du marché des changes. Sans rentrer sans les détails, la bourse permet parfois d’effectuer la vente à découvert (short-selling), c’est quand vous empruntez un actif à quelqu’un qui le détient, moyennant commission, pour le vendre immédiatement, le racheter plus tard (en espérant que les prix ont fortement baissé) et le rendre à son propriétaire après – cette pratique permet dans de nombreux cas d’ajuster des prix trop élevés lorsque pour x ou y raison les détenteurs ne les vendent pas alors que le prix est surélevé. Traditionnellement une bourse se tient dans un lieu physique mais maintenant c’est largement effectué virtuellement. La dernière structure de marché majeure est le marché organisé par un courtier – souvent une banque d’investissement. Ici le courtier achète une grosse quantité d’actifs sur la bourse en tant que broker et la revend au détail à ses clients en tant que dealer, ses traders sont là pour répondre à la demande des clients au meilleur prix possible et à liquider le surplus. Le courtier peut prendre une commission sur les ordres, fixer son propre bid-ask en fonction de ses stocks disponibles et empocher la différence. Dans certains cas il peut prêter de l’argent à ses clients pour qu’ils achètent ses produits et encaisser les intérêts du prêt ou encore proposer les services d’analystes financiers qui vont faire des recommandations aux clients (a.k.a full service). Ces marchés restent contrôlés par l’AMF en France vu le contrôle qu’a le courtier sur son marché, le but étant que ses prix suivent ceux de la bourse. Le courtier gère son propre risque et met des limites (comme le margin call) pour éviter que ses clients ne fassent faillite – il est perdant si cela se produit, surtout s’il a prêté de l’argent à son client, il a surtout intérêt à ce que son client continue d’effectuer des ordres car c’est comme cela qu’il se rémunère, parfois au détriment du client. C – marché au comptant, marché à terme et marché dérivé Le marché au comptant, en anglais « spot » est le marché où les échanges ont lieu en temps direct – si accord il y a, l’actif et le capital sont échangés au moment de la transaction. Sans aucun autre instrument il n’offre pas beaucoup de flexibilité, il ne permet pas de manipuler facilement le risque auquel on s’expose, car en achetant un actif on prend à 100% le risque du sous-jacent et on est totalement soumis aux aléas des prix. Le marché à terme est un peu différent. Ici on s’engage dans des contrats spécifiques où l’on se met d’accord sur un prix et où l’échange de capital et d’actif s’effectue à une date postérieure, peu importe le prix du marché à ce moment. Le terme utilisé pour dire qu’on rentre dans un contrat à terme est prendre une position. Ici on a un transfert d’une partie du risque de l’acheteur de l’actif (on dit qu’il est en position longue) au vendeur (on dit qu’il est en position courte). En effet, celui en position longue préfère fixer le prix futur et ne pas prendre le risque que les prix baissent et celui en position courte prend le risque d’acheter quelque chose qui en vaudra moins à la date de l’échange. Cela permet à certains investisseurs de couvrir, par exemple, leur risque de change s’ils savent qu’à une certaine date ils voudront échanger une certaine somme de monnaie contre une autre et à d’autres qui ont une plus grande capacité à encaisser le risque de spéculer. Ces contrats ont d’autant plus de valeur que le sous-jacent est volatile. Vu qu’on a vu le marché gré-à-gré et la bourse, je vais parler des différences entre les deux sur le marché à terme. Sur le marché à terme gré-à-gré, les contrats à terme sont appelés « forwards », vous pouvez les personnaliser comme vous voulez, avec vos prix, vos quantités, vous négociez ça. Cependant, si votre contrepartie fait faillite avant l’exécution du contrat, vous n’avez aucun moyen d’effectuer la transaction et vous n’avez aucun moyen de sortir de ce contrat si vous-mêmes vous avez des difficultés à remplir vos obligations. Si vous êtes un agriculteur qui vend sa récolte de l’année prochaine avec ce type de contrat, vous avez intérêt à faire en sorte que vous produisez assez pour l’exécuter ou que vous pouvez acheter ce qui vous manque si vous n’y parvenez pas le jour de la livraison. Sur le marché à terme en bourse c’est un peu différent, ici les prix, les quantités, les obligations contractuelles et modalités de livraison sont fixés à l’avance par l’offre et la demande et ne sont pas négociables, avec ce qu’on appelle les contrats « futures ». L’avantage des futures est que si vous pensez qu’il y a un risque que vous ne puissiez apporter votre partie du contrat (le capital ou l’actif), vous pouvez vous dégager de votre obligation contractuelle en cédant votre position à quelqu’un en capacité de le faire – si vous avez de la chance, plus de participants pourront exécuter votre position maintenant, ce qui normalement devrait rendre votre position attirante et on vous achètera votre contrat. Si au contraire, nombre comme vous ne peuvent exécuter ce contrat (mauvaises récoltes à cause de la météo par exemple), vous aurez du mal à le céder et vous serez peut-être obligé de payer quelqu’un pour qu’il l’exécute à votre place. Par ailleurs, les participants sont obligés d’avoir un apport en capital pour rentrer dans un future et si par hasard votre contrepartie fait faillite, la chambre de compensation (ou clearing house) vous remboursera, ce qui élimine le risque de contrepartie. Autre particularité du contrat à terme, vous pouvez conserver la rente de votre actif tant que la date d’exécution n’est pas venue, mais vous devez toujours payer les frais de stockage, livraison ou autres, ce qui est bien sûr pris en compte dans le prix. Le marché des dérivés est vraiment là où le risque est transféré et manipulé. Ici on échange ce qu’on appelle des options/warrants, des contrats d’échange (swaps), des pensions livrées (repurchase agreements ou « repo »), les couvertures de défaillance (credit default swaps, CDS) entre autres. N’ayez crainte on va attaquer chacun de ces termes. D’abord, sur le marché des dérivés en bourse on a les options dite « vanilla ». Une option, contrairement à un contrat à terme, donne le droit et non l’obligation, d’acheter ou de vendre un actif à un moment donné à un prix donné et on effectue une transaction financière pour rentrer dans ce contrat, proportionnelle au risque que transféré d’une partie à l’autre. Le droit d’acheter l’actif est appelé « call » et le droit de le vendre est appelé « put », le prix convenu est appelé « strike price ». Si le jour venu votre strike price est plus intéressante que le prix de l’actif à ce moment-là, on dit que votre option est « in the money » (ITM), si votre option est moins intéressante on dit qu’elle est « out of the money » (OTM) et si elle est aussi intéressante que le prix actuel, on dit qu’elle est « at the money » (ATM). Si votre option vous donne seulement la possibilité d’exercer votre droit à une date donnée, on dit qu’elle est de style européen, si vous pouvez l’exercer à n’importe quel moment jusqu’à la date convenue on dit qu’elle est de style américain. Plus le prix de l’actif sous-jacent est volatile, et plus il est facile d’exercer l’option (par exemple si elle est de style américain), plus il y a de fortes chances que l’option soit in-the-money, plus la valeur de l’option augmente, car le détenteur transmet beaucoup de risque à sa contrepartie. Vous trouverez aussi en bourse de commerce des options sur la météo, pour vous protéger en cas de mauvaises récoltes par exemple. L’intérêt de ces options est qu’elles peuvent facilement créer de gros effets de levier étant donné qu’une option vaut typiquement 2-10% de l’actif sous-jacent, puis comme c’est échangé en bourse on peut s’en débarrasser rapidement si on ne peut pas les exercer faute de moyens ou d’actif. Pour les matheux intrigués je conseille en introduction le modèle de Black-Scholes. Sur le marché gré-à-gré on va retrouver tous les contrats divers et variés susmentionnés. Une warrant est une option non-échangeable émise par une banque en série limitée. Ensuite on a les options exotiques, qui sont tout un tas d’options avec des règles particulières. Pour vous donner des exemples on a des options pour échanger des actifs (pourquoi pas du blé contre une action Google ?), les options style asiatique qui vous donnent le droit d’acheter un actif à son prix moyen sur une période donnée (pour vous protéger de la volatilité) ou les options style parisiennes qu’on ne peut exercer que si le prix du sous-jacent est dans certains clous pendant une certaine période (pour vous protéger de la manipulation des cours). Le swap ou contrat d’échange est quand deux parties se mettent d’accord pour faire plusieurs contrats à terme à répétition, nous allons en voir des exemples plus tard. Je m'attarde un peu sur le repo car c'est très discuté dans les actualités récemment. J'y ai fait référence dans mon post sur la monnaie. Un repo est une transaction spot (actif contre capital) plus un contrat forward pour que l'actif soit racheté à une période future. C'est une façon pour une institution financière d'emprunter de l'argent à une autre (souvent pour une très courte période, parfois 24h), comme la banque centrale, sans que l'autre partie ne prenne quelconque risque, tant est que l'actif échangé soit fiable, comme un bon du trésor. La banque centrale injecte des liquidités temporairement, elles reviennent dans ses coffres le jour suivant. Ce n'est pas comme le Quantitative Easing où l'actif est définitivement acheté par la banque centrale et l'argent est injecté durablement dans le système. La banque centrale fait des repo pour imposer pratiquement par la force les taux qu'elle veut transmettre au reste de l'économie, surtout lorsque les banques commerciales ne se font plus confiance et font grimper leurs taux au-delà des limites définies par la banque centrale. Les couvertures de défaillance servent à rembourser les détenteurs d'obligations lorsque l'entreprise sous-jacente fait défaut (c'est un contrat d'assurance). Synthèse de l'organisation et de la classification des marchés D – Les marchés selon les types d’actifs Le marché monétaire (que j’ai couvert en détail dans mon post précédent) est le marché où les liquidités excédentaires sont prêtées pour une période courte aux entreprises, particuliers ou Etats qui en ont besoin, moyennant une rente nommée intérêt. je vous renvoie à mon post sur le sujet Le marché de la dette long-terme est là où se financent les participants qui veulent des fonds pour une période supérieure à deux ans, moyennant intérêts. On appelle le marché où s’échange entre investisseurs la dette long-terme le marché obligataire. On a des obligations de différents types en fonction des intérêts versés ou des options attachées à l'obligation. Une obligation a un principal et un coupon (l'intérêt versé périodiquement). Une obligation sans coupon est un zéro-coupon et au lieu de verser un intérêt, on prête initialement une somme au débiteur qui est inférieure au principal qu'il doit rendre à la fin du contrat. Le principal peut être remboursé progressivement comme pour une dette immobilière (amortissement) ou en totalité d'un coup à la fin du contrat (bullet bond). Le coupon peut être à taux fixe ou variable. Si c'est variable ce sera en général le LIBOR + une petite prime de risque/liquidité ou bien une grosse prime - le LIBOR. Comme on peut revendre des obligations sur le marché secondaire, leur prix va varier en fonction du risque que le débiteur fasse défaut et des taux. Si les taux en vigueur aujourd'hui sont meilleurs que celui de votre obligation, sa valeur relative décroît. C'est pour cela que les obligations d'Etat ont un risque de prix sur le marché secondaire et ne sont pas sans risque, le risque de défaut n'est pas le seul risque d'une obligation. Une des propriétés vertueuses des obligations est la convexité, en termes simples, une obligation peut plus facilement prendre de la valeur si les taux baissent, qu'elle ne peut en perdre si les taux augmentent. On trouvera sur le marché des dérivés des couvertures de défaillance (CDS), des repo et des swaps pour échanger des taux fixes contre des taux variables, ainsi que des mortgage-backed-securities (MBS) qui regroupent de nombreux crédits immobiliers d'une banque régionale ou des collateralized-debt-obligations (CDO) qui regroupent des crédits et d'autres instruments financiers pour produire un actif complexe avec un risque personnalisé (souvent très élevé). Ce sont les CDO, les MBS et les CDS qui ont causé la crise de 2008 comme les agences de notation n'ont pas fait leur rôle et ont sous-estimé le risque de ces produits. Le marché action est le marché où s’échangent les parts des entreprises. Une action représente la valeur résiduelle des profits (ou de la liquidation) d’une entreprise une fois que tous les créanciers (l’Etat compris) sont payés. Certaines actions ont des droits de votes, d’autres non. Elles versent une rente appelée dividendes, qui sont variables en fonction des résultats de l’entreprise ainsi que de ses besoins en capital. Une définition alternative d’une action est une dette à durée indéterminée/illimitée. En bourse on va calculer la valeur intrinsèque de l'action en faisant la somme des dividendes futurs qu'on espère plus le prix de cession espéré divisisés par un taux qui représente le risque de l'investissement et le retour minimum qu'on attend en échange. Alternativement on calcule la valeur liquidative des actifs de l'entreprise moins sa dette si on pense qu'elle va faire faillite. Plus un dividende est éloigné dans le temps, moins il comptera dans la valeur intrinsèque, puis si l'on estime que le risque est élevé, les dividendes lointains ne comptent quasiment pas. Si on pense que le marché est efficace, deux autres méthodes populaires existent, la première est appelée les multiples. En gros on regarde les entreprises comparables et on calcule ler prix divisés par leurs revenus par exemple, puis on multiplie les revenus de l'entreprise qu'on analyse par ces multiples pour avoir une idée de sa valorisation relative. Sinon, on regarde à quel point l'action varie en même temps que le restedu marché. Si l'action varie moins fortement que le marché, on lui donne une valeur plus grande, inversement si elle varie plus fortement on baisse sa valeur car on considère que c'est une action risquée. Hors bourse, il y a plusieurs méthodes. Si l'entreprise est toute nouvelle on va surtout valoriser la compétence des entrepreneurs pour estimer le risque, si l'entreprise gagne déjà de l'argent mais ne verse pas de dividendes on va regarder ses flux de trésorerie et son EBITDA. On classifie les actions en fonction des secteurs industriels, du prix par rapport aux revenus nets, flux de trésorerie et aux dividendes (Value et Growth) ainsi qu'en fonction de leur capitalisation boursière. On trouvera ici nos options, mais aussi des indices boursiers qui font la moyenne des rendements (en terme de prix et de dividendes) d'un groupe d'actions, soit à part égale pour chaque entreprise, soit pondérée par leur capitalisation boursière ou leurs prix par action individuelle. Ces indices sont suivis par des fonds indiciels, qui peuvent être soit des fonds mutuels (achetés en gré-à-gré) ou des ETF (achetés en bourse/courtiers). On trouvera ici nos options, nos warrants, des equity swaps (échange de dividendes par exemple) ou des total return swaps (pour les ETF synthétiques, voir mon post sur le sujet). On notera que le marché action et le marché obligataire forment le marché dit des capitaux. Le marché des changes (Foreign Exchange ou tout simplement ForEx en anglais) est le marché qui fait jonction entre les différentes économies et permet de convertir une monnaie en une autre – la monnaie ne verse pas de rente mais est sujette à l’inflation/déflation de l’économie qu’elle représente. L’offre et la demande d’une monnaie est déterminée par l’attractivité de l’économie – si beaucoup d’investisseurs étrangers veulent y investir, la demande pour la monnaie va croître et sa valeur relative va s’apprécier, ou bien si des ressortissants d'un pays veulent renvoyer des liquidités chez eux. Alternativement certaines monnaies sont fixées à d’autres monnaies ou, rarement aujourd’hui, fluctuent en fonction du prix de certaines matières premières et de la quantité d'icelles possédée par la banque centrale par rapport à la demande de la monnaie. Dans le cas des cryptomonnaies, en plus de la demande et l'offre de monnaie, on valorise aussi la qualité des services, la capacité de calcul allouée et coût pour effectuer les transactions. Ici on peut faire des swaps de monnaie, en gros simuler le coût d'un échange de monnaie sans s'échanger réellement la monnaie. Ca permet de couvrir le risque de change sans passer par le marché classique. Le marché alternatif est composé de plusieurs marchés comme le marché des matières premières (représenté par les bourses de commerce) où s’échangent métaux précieux, l'énergie, le pétrole et blé entre autres, le marché des fonds d’investissement à stratégies alternatives type private equity/venture capital/hedge fund avec des stratégies impossibles à réaliser pour des particuliers seuls, le marché de l’immobilier – où la rente est appelée loyer, le marché des œuvres d’art, du vin et j’en passe et des meilleurs. Sur les matières premières on va aussi trouver des indices de prix (commodity indexes), des futures sur l'or, des options sur la météo et des forwards sur des matières exotiques. L'immobilier est classé en plusieurs catégories comme le résidentiel, le commercial et les bureaux, les actifs peuvent être détenus en direct ou à travers des fonds privés ou cotés. En résumé Voilà une synthèse de la finance aujourd'hui. J'ai omis des sujets comme la FinTech car cela sort du propos, mais, tant est que la modération l'accepte, je vais publier une brève histoire de la finance qui comprendra cela. J'ai fait exprès d'aborder certains sujets sans trop les creuser, notamment les bulles financières, car je préfère répondre à des questions précises plutôt que de me lancer dans une explication qui va perdre tout le monde. Je n'ai pas eu le temps de faire tous les graphiques et schémas que je voulais mais si vous en voulez en particulier ce sera avec plaisir. Si vous voulez des sources pour des éléments particuliers hésitez pas, j'ai toute une bibliographie d'articles et de livres. Merci à ceux qui m'ont encouragé à écrire ce post.
How to get started in Forex - A comprehensive guide for newbies
Almost every day people come to this subreddit asking the same basic questions over and over again. I've put this guide together to point you in the right direction and help you get started on your forex journey. A quick background on me before you ask: My name is Bob, I'm based out of western Canada. I started my forex journey back in January 2018 and am still learning. However I am trading live, not on demo accounts. I also code my own EA's. I not certified, licensed, insured, or even remotely qualified as a professional in the finance industry. Nothing I say constitutes financial advice. Take what I'm saying with a grain of salt, but everything I've outlined below is a synopsis of some tough lessons I've learned over the last year of being in this business. LET'S GET SOME UNPLEASANTNESS OUT OF THE WAY I'm going to call you stupid. I'm also going to call you dumb. I'm going to call you many other things. I do this because odds are, you are stupid, foolish,and just asking to have your money taken away. Welcome to the 95% of retail traders. Perhaps uneducated or uninformed are better phrases, but I've never been a big proponent of being politically correct. Want to get out of the 95% and join the 5% of us who actually make money doing this? Put your grown up pants on, buck up, and don't give me any of this pc "This is hurting my feelings so I'm not going to listen to you" bullshit that the world has been moving towards. Let's rip the bandage off quickly on this point - the world does not give a fuck about you. At one point maybe it did, it was this amazing vision nicknamed the American Dream. It died an agonizing, horrible death at the hand of capitalists and entrepreneurs. The world today revolves around money. Your money, my money, everybody's money. People want to take your money to add it to theirs. They don't give a fuck if it forces you out on the street and your family has to live in cardboard box. The world just stopped caring in general. It sucks, but it's the way the world works now. Welcome to the new world order. It's called Capitalism. And here comes the next hard truth that you will need to accept - Forex is a cruel bitch of a mistress. She will hurt you. She will torment you. She will give you nightmares. She will keep you awake at night. And then she will tease you with a glimmer of hope to lure you into a false sense of security before she then guts you like a fish and shows you what your insides look like. This statement applies to all trading markets - they are cruel, ruthless, and not for the weak minded. The sooner you accept these truths, the sooner you will become profitable. Don't accept it? That's fine. Don't bother reading any further. If I've offended you I don't give a fuck. You can run back home and hide under your bed. The world doesn't care and neither do I. For what it's worth - I am not normally an major condescending asshole like the above paragraphs would suggest. In fact, if you look through my posts on this subreddit you will see I am actually quite helpful most of the time to many people who come here. But I need you to really understand that Forex is not for most people. It will make you cry. And if the markets themselves don't do it, the people in the markets will. LESSON 1 - LEARN THE BASICS Save yourself and everybody here a bunch of time - learn the basics of forex. You can learn the basics for free - BabyPips has one of the best free courses online which explains what exactly forex is, how it works, different strategies and methods of how to approach trading, and many other amazing topics. You can access the BabyPips course by clicking this link: https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex Do EVERY course in the School of Pipsology. It's free, it's comprehensive, and it will save you from a lot of trouble. It also has the added benefit of preventing you from looking foolish and uneducated when you come here asking for help if you already know this stuff. If you still have questions about how forex works, please see the FREE RESOURCES links on the /Forex FAQ which can be found here: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/wiki/index Quiz Time Answer these questions truthfully to yourself: -What is the difference between a market order, a stop order, and a limit order? -How do you draw a support/resistance line? (Demonstrate it to yourself) -What is the difference between MACD, RSI, and Stochastic indicators? -What is fundamental analysis and how does it differ from technical analysis and price action trading? -True or False: It's better to have a broker who gives you 500:1 margin instead of 50:1 margin. Be able to justify your reasoning. If you don't know to answer to any of these questions, then you aren't ready to move on. Go back to the School of Pipsology linked above and do it all again. If you can answer these questions without having to refer to any kind of reference then congratulations, you are ready to move past being a forex newbie and are ready to dive into the wonderful world of currency trading! Move onto Lesson 2 below. LESSON 2 - RANDOM STRANGERS ARE NOT GOING TO HELP YOU GET RICH IN FOREX This may come as a bit of a shock to you, but that random stranger on instagram who is posting about how he is killing it on forex is not trying to insprire you to greatness. He's also not trying to help you. He's also not trying to teach you how to attain financial freedom. 99.99999% of people posting about wanting to help you become rich in forex are LYING TO YOU. Why would such nice, polite people do such a thing? Because THEY ARE TRYING TO PROFIT FROM YOUR STUPIDITY. Plain and simple. Here's just a few ways these "experts" and "gurus" profit from you:
Referral Links - If they require you to click a specific link to signup for something, it means they are an affiliate. They get a commission from whatever the third party is that they are sending you to. I don't care if it's a brokerage, training program, hell even an Amazon link to a book - if they insist you have to click their super exclusive, can't-get-this-deal-any-other-way-but-clicking-my-link type bullshit, it's an affiliate link. There is nothing inherently wrong with affiliate programs, but you are literally generating money for some stranger because they convinced you to buy something. Some brokers such as ICMarkets have affiliate programs that payout a percentage of the commission you generate - this is a really clever system - whether you profit or blow your entire account, the person who referred you to the broker makes a profit off you. Clever eh?
Signal Services, Education & Training Programs, Courses - If somebody is telling you they are making a killing with a signal service and are trying to convince you to join it, I guarantee they are getting a piece of your monthly fee. And better still, these signal services often work...for about a week. Just long enough to suck a bunch of poor fools into it. You see people making money, you want in so you agree to pay the $200+/month subscription fee. You follow the signals and it looks like it's making money for a few days or weeks. Then it turns sideways, you start losing money hand over fist. Pretty soon you have lost most of your trading account because you blindly followed a signal service. And better still - when you go screaming at the person running the signal service they will be very quick to point you to their No Refunds policy. To add insult to injury, the buttfucker that referred you to the signal service in the past will likely listen to you getting mad, and then come back with something like "Sorry it didn't work out, but I just joined this other amazing service and it's working great, you should come join it to earn your money back. Here's my link..." You get the point here right?
Multi-Level Marketing (MLMs) - These people are scum. They are going to offer you training and education, signals, access to forex experts and gurus, and all kinds of other shit with the promise that you will live the dream and become financially free. They are also loading you into a pyrmaid scheme where you will be hounded to recruit other people and make money off them just like you got roped into it. A really prime example here is iMarkets Live (or IML for short). Don't touch this shit with a 10 foot pole. I don't care what they are claiming, you will lose everything using them.
Fund Managers - These people make my skin crawl. It's a classic scam and it works like this - somebody will post online about how much money they are making trading forex/commodities/stocks/whatever. Most of the time they won't explicitly post they are offering a trading service, rather they just put the message out there and wait for the ignorant masses (that's you) to contact them. They will charm you. They will lie to you. They will promise you the moon if you simply wire them some money or give them API access to your trading account. Care to guess what happens next? If you send a wire transfer (or Western Union...hell any kind of payment to them) they will vanish. Happens usually after they take a bunch of suckers for the ride. You sent them $2,000 and so do 9 other suckers. They just made $20,000 and are gone. With API access to your account, you will find your account gets blown super fast or worse - possibly leaving you open to persecution by the broker you are using.
These are just a few examples. The reality is that very few people make it big in forex or any kind of trading. If somebody is trying to sell you the dream, they are essentially a magician - making you look the other way while they snatch your wallet and clean you out. Additionally, on the topic of fund managers - legitimate fund managers will be certified, licensed, and insured. Ask them for proof of those 3 things. What they typically look like are:
Certified - This varies from country to country, in the US it's FINRA (http://www.finra.org). They need to have their Series 7 certification minimum. You can make the case that other FINRA certifications are acceptable in lieu of Series 7, but the 7 is the gold standard.
Licensed - They need to have a valid business license issued by the government. It must clearly state they are an investment company, preferrably a hedge fund because they have some super strict requirements to operate (and often require $25,000+ in fees just to get their business license, so you know they at least have some skin in the game).
Insured - They need to be backed by an insurance company. I'm not talking general insurance for shit like their office burning down. I'm talking about a government-implemented protection insurance program - in the US I believe that is issued by the Securities Investment Protection Corporation (https://www.sipc.org/).
If you are talking to a fund manager and they are insisting they have all of these, get a copy of their verification documents and lookup their licenses on the directories of the issuers to verify they are valid. If they are, then at least you are talking to somebody who seems to have their shit together and is doing investment management and trading as a professional and you are at least partially protected when the shit hits the fan. LESSON 3 - UNDERSTAND YOUR RISK Many people jump into Forex, drop $2000 into a broker account and start trading 1 lot orders because they signed up with a broker thinking they will get rich because they were given 500:1 margin and can risk it all on each trade. Worst-case scenario you lose your account, best case scenario you become a millionaire very quickly. Seems like a pretty good gamble right? You are dead wrong. As a new trader, you should never risk more than 1% of your account balance on a trade. If you have some experience and are confident and doing well, then it's perfectly natural to risk 2-3% of your account per trade. Anybody who risks more than 4-5% of their account on a single trade deserves to blow their account. At that point you aren't trading, you are gambling. Don't pretend you are a trader when really you are just putting everything on red and hoping the roulette ball lands in the right spot. It's stupid and reckless and going to screw you very quickly. Let's do some math here: You put $2,000 into your trading account. Risking 1% means you are willing to lose $20 per trade. That means you are going to be trading micro lots, or 0.01 lots most likely ($0.10/pip). At that level you can have a trade stop loss at -200 pips and only lose $20. It's the best starting point for anybody. Additionally, if you SL 20 trades in a row you are only down $200 (or 10% of your account) which isn't that difficult to recover from. Risking 3% means you are willing to lose $60 per trade. You could do mini lots at this point, which is 0.1 lots (or $1/pip). Let's say you SL on 20 trades in a row. You've just lost $1,200 or 60% of your account. Even veteran traders will go through periods of repeat SL'ing, you are not a special snowflake and are not immune to periods of major drawdown. Risking 5% means you are willing to lose $100 per trade. SL 20 trades in a row, your account is blown. As Red Foreman would call it - Good job dumbass. Never risk more than 1% of your account on any trade until you can show that you are either consistently breaking even or making a profit. By consistently, I mean 200 trades minimum. You do 200 trades over a period of time and either break-even or make a profit, then you should be alright to increase your risk. Unfortunately, this is where many retail traders get greedy and blow it. They will do 10 trades and hit their profit target on 9 of them. They will start seeing huge piles of money in their future and get greedy. They will start taking more risk on their trades than their account can handle. 200 trades of break-even or profitable performance risking 1% per trade. Don't even think about increasing your risk tolerance until you do it. When you get to this point, increase you risk to 2%. Do 1,000 trades at this level and show break-even or profit. If you blow your account, go back down to 1% until you can figure out what the hell you did differently or wrong, fix your strategy, and try again. Once you clear 1,000 trades at 2%, it's really up to you if you want to increase your risk. I don't recommend it. Even 2% is bordering on gambling to be honest. LESSON 4 - THE 500 PIP DRAWDOWN RULE This is a rule I created for myself and it's a great way to help protect your account from blowing. Sometimes the market goes insane. Like really insane. Insane to the point that your broker can't keep up and they can't hold your orders to the SL and TP levels you specified. They will try, but during a flash crash like we had at the start of January 2019 the rules can sometimes go flying out the window on account of the trading servers being unable to keep up with all the shit that's hitting the fan. Because of this I live by a rule I call the 500 Pip Drawdown Rule and it's really quite simple - Have enough funds in your account to cover a 500 pip drawdown on your largest open trade. I don't care if you set a SL of -50 pips. During a flash crash that shit sometimes just breaks. So let's use an example - you open a 0.1 lot short order on USDCAD and set the SL to 50 pips (so you'd only lose $50 if you hit stoploss). An hour later Trump makes some absurd announcement which causes a massive fundamental event on the market. A flash crash happens and over the course of the next few minutes USDCAD spikes up 500 pips, your broker is struggling to keep shit under control and your order slips through the cracks. By the time your broker is able to clear the backlog of orders and activity, your order closes out at 500 pips in the red. You just lost $500 when you intended initially to only risk $50. It gets kinda scary if you are dealing with whole lot orders. A single order with a 500 pip drawdown is $5,000 gone in an instant. That will decimate many trader accounts. Remember my statements above about Forex being a cruel bitch of a mistress? I wasn't kidding. Granted - the above scenario is very rare to actually happen. But glitches to happen from time to time. Broker servers go offline. Weird shit happens which sets off a fundamental shift. Lots of stuff can break your account very quickly if you aren't using proper risk management. LESSON 5 - UNDERSTAND DIFFERENT TRADING METHODOLOGIES Generally speaking, there are 3 trading methodologies that traders employ. It's important to figure out what method you intend to use before asking for help. Each has their pros and cons, and you can combine them in a somewhat hybrid methodology but that introduces challenges as well. In a nutshell:
Price Action Trading (Sometimes called Naked Trading) is very effective at identifying when trends will start and finish. This gives you the advantage of staying ahead of the market and predicting when a change in trend direction will occur. It has the disadvantage of being really easy to screw it up if you don't plot your support and resistance lines properly and interpret the chart wrong. Because you can identify a change in trend direction, you'll generally make more profit on a new trend than a technical strategy will.
Technical Analytics (or TA) uses math and statistics to try and identify where the market is headed or confirm/reject whether a trend is happening. It has the advantage of being very math and stat driven which is hard to refute the numbers, but it has the disadvantage of being late to the party when it comes to identifying trends (hence why people call TA a lagging strategy). When people fail using TA, it's not because of the math - it's because you misinterpreted what the math is telling you.
Fundamental Analysis (or FA) uses news and macro scale events to predict what is going on. A really good example right now is Brexit, what a clusterfuck that is. Every time some major brexit news breaks it causes all sorts of choas in almost every currency pair. Fundamental trading has the highest potential profitability per trade but it also has the highest potential drawdown per trade.
Now you may be thinking that you want to be a a price action trader - you should still learn the principles and concepts behind TA and FA. Same if you are planning to be a technical trader - you should learn about price action and fundamental analysis. More knowledge is better, always. With regards to technical analysis, you need to really understand what the different indicators are tell you. It's very easy to misinterpret what an indicator is telling you, which causes you to make a bad trade and lose money. It's also important to understand that every indicator can be tuned to your personal preferences. You might find, for example, that using Bollinger Bands with the normal 20 period SMA close, 2 standard deviation is not effective for how you look at the chart, but changing that to say a 20 period EMA average price, 1 standard deviation bollinger band indicator could give you significantly more insight. LESSON 6 - TIMEFRAMES MATTER Understanding the differences in which timeframes you trade on will make or break your chosen strategy. Some strategies work really well on Daily timeframes (i.e. Ichimoku) but they fall flat on their face if you use them on 1H timeframes, for example. There is no right or wrong answer on what timeframe is best to trade on. Generally speaking however, there are 2 things to consider:
Speed - If you are scalping (trading on the really fast candles like 1M, 5M, 15M, etc) odds are your trades are very short lived. Maybe 10 minutes to an hour tops. For the most part, scalping strategies will produce little profit per trade but make up for it in the sheer volume of trades. Whereas swing trading may only make a few trades but each one could be worth a significant amount of money.
Spread (the fee you pay to the broker when you trade) - If you are a scalper, the spread is your worst enemy because you have to overcome it very fast to make a profit on your order. Whereas swing trading the spread hardly impacts you at all.
If you are a total newbie to forex, I suggest you don't trade on anything shorter than the 1H timeframe when you are first learning. Trading on higher timeframes tends to be much more forgiving and profitable per trade. Scalping is a delicate art and requires finesse and can be very challenging when you are first starting out. LESSON 7 - AUTOBOTS...ROLL OUT! Yeah...I'm a geek and grew up with the Transformers franchise decades before Michael Bay came along. Deal with it. Forex bots are called EA's (Expert Advisors). They can be wonderous and devastating at the same time. /Forex is not really the best place to get help with them. That is what /algotrading is useful for. However some of us that lurk on /Forex code EA's and will try to assist when we can. Anybody can learn to code an EA. But just like how 95% of retail traders fail, I would estimate the same is true for forex bots. Either the strategy doesn't work, the code is buggy, or many other reasons can cause EA's to fail. Because EA's can often times run up hundreds of orders in a very quick period of time, it's critical that you test them repeatedly before letting them lose on a live trading account so they don't blow your account to pieces. You have been warned. If you want to learn how to code an EA, I suggest you start with MQL. It's a programming language which can be directly interpretted by Meta Trader. The Meta Trader terminal client even gives you a built in IDE for coding EA's in MQL. The downside is it can be buggy and glitchy and caused many frustrating hours of work to figure out what is wrong. If you don't want to learn MQL, you can code an EA up in just about any programming language. Python is really popular for forex bots for some reason. But that doesn't mean you couldn't do it in something like C++ or Java or hell even something more unusual like JQuery if you really wanted. I'm not going to get into the finer details of how to code EA's, there are some amazing guides out there. Just be careful with them. They can be your best friend and at the same time also your worst enemy when it comes to forex. One final note on EA's - don't buy them. Ever. Let me put this into perspective - I create an EA which is literally producing money for me automatically 24/5. If it really is a good EA which is profitable, there is no way in hell I'm selling it. I'm keeping it to myself to make a fortune off of. EA's that are for sale will not work, will blow your account, and the developer who coded it will tell you that's too darn bad but no refunds. Don't ever buy an EA from anybody. LESSON 8 - BRING ON THE HATERS You are going to find that this subreddit is frequented by trolls. Some of them will get really nasty. Some of them will threaten you. Some of them will just make you miserable. It's the price you pay for admission to the /Forex club. If you can't handle it, then I suggest you don't post here. Find a more newbie-friendly site. It sucks, but it's reality. We often refer to trolls on this subreddit as shitcunts. That's your word of the day. Learn it, love it. Shitcunts. YOU MADE IT, WELCOME TO FOREX! If you've made it through all of the above and aren't cringing or getting scared, then welcome aboard the forex train! You will fit in nicely here. Ask your questions and the non-shitcunts of our little corner of reddit will try to help you. Assuming this post doesn't get nuked and I don't get banned for it, I'll add more lessons to this post over time. Lessons I intend to add in the future:
Why you will blow your first account and what to do when it happens
Trading Psychology (this will be a beefy one and will take a while to put together)
Exotics vs Majors and which you should focus on as a newbie (aka how to blow your account in a single trade with exotics)
Hello, I'm new to Forex trading but seem to be picking it up fairly quickly. With the seeming thousands of Forex brokers available to choose from, how do I pick one thats right for me? I can't seem to find a website that will let me filter choices, they all just seem to list them off.
I'd like to start small while I'm still learning the ropes, so a small or 0 minimum deposit (maybe $100?) is preferable.
I selected Oanda based on the above criteria initially but am finding it difficult to make any significant returns due to what seem to be outrageous spreads (is it just me or does 3 pips seem high? Maybe I'm just too much of a noob!). Ideally I'd like a reliably small and/or fixed spread.
Regulation is of course important, as I don't want a deposed Nigerian prince doing my business, so I would prefer to work with a broker in the US.
I don't mind commissions as long its not something absurd. I prefer a reasonable commission to a ridiculous spread.
Do you more seasoned folks have any recommendation of either resources I could peruse or specific brokers that might fit my needs?
About: In the Forex world, there are two types of spreads offered by Forex Brokers towards their traders. This means that they can trade wither on a Fixed spread or Variable spread only. There are many traders that will decide to open an account with a specific Broker only because of the spread type that the Broker offers. Fixed spreads are offered by many brokers and allow you to trade with more predictability over how much you're going to pay in spreads. In this comparison, we've compared some of the top online brokers that offer tight fixed spreads for trading forex, crypto, stocks, indices & more. Fixed Spread Forex Brokers. The trading cost always is the key feature to any trader or investor, as by the end of the day a significant amount can be paid just for the difference between the sell and buy price. It is a fact that typically the trading costs charged by the Broker are built into a difference between the price for a particular instrument or more known as a spread. As a trader, you can choose between brokers with fixed and variable spreads. This article discusses the pros and cons of trading Forex on fixed spreads. Fixed vs. variable spreads. The spread is the difference between the buy and the sell price of a currency pair at a point in time. If your broker quotes EUR/USD at 1.5602/05, this translates ... Forex Brokers with Fixed Spreads. Compare Forex brokers and accounts with fixed spreads, whatever the market conditions. Make the most of market volatility. #1. Visit website 79% of retail CFD accounts lose money. AvaTrade (AvaTrade.com) is an award winning online broker. Access a wide range of markets spanning Forex, crypto-currencies, shares, metals and more on competitive spreads. Markets ... Fixed-Spread Broker Vergleich. Fixed Spread Broker bieten ihren Kunden den Handel zu immer gleichen Spreads an. Dies bedeutet, dass der Spread bei einem Fixed-Spread Broker zu keiner Zeit erweitert wird. Hierzu zählt auch der Forex- oder Rohstoffhandel während hektischen Marktphasen, während News-Releases oder der Asia-Session. Fixed spreads vs. floating spreads. Forex brokers offer a choice of fixed and floating spreads. So, what's best? The answer to this question depends on your experience and trading strategies. Fixed spreads. If your broker quotes fixed spreads, the bid-ask spread will be constant at all times, regardless of market conditions. You'll find that spreads may vary across currency pairs: they can be ... Similarly, the spreads between buy and sell of currencies in Forex trading change depending on the volatility of the market. But if the buyer and seller fix up the price irrespective of market volatility, it is known as fixed spreads. So, in fixed spreads you know what would be the spread is in the future and develop your trading strategy accordingly. Fixed spreads vs Variable spreads. As ... In forex trading traders have the opportunity to keep trading fees as low as possible.One of the best ways to do this is to sign up with Australian forex brokers with fixed spreads to maximise your profit. The following article will take a look at the advantages and disadvantages associated with fixed spreads. It will ... Read moreAustralian Forex Brokers with Fixed Spreads Four things that your Fixed Spread Forex Brokers does not want you to know. In any business, they all have a secret that they like to keep secure. Even the best-fixed spread forex brokers will keep secrets from their clients. However, there are fewer secrets that a forex broker can keep because of the regulations that are in place. The regulations also stop illegal activities since there are ...
In this video, we will go through the Top 5 Best Forex Brokers with fixed spreads that you can trade with now. Visit our channel : https://www.youtube.com/ch... If you are using a fixed spread Forex broker then the width of the spread will not change, no matter how volatile the market is. However, if you are using a variable spread Forex broker then the ... Skype ID - darianspartz Brokers - ICmarkets - https://icmarkets.com/?camp=9269 HotForex - https://www.hotforex.com/?refid=320156 LMFX - https://www.lmfx.com/... Our spreads are fixed and I feel fixed spreads are better. With variable spreads, in volatile you can offer tight spreads but during periods of low liquidity spreads can get very wide. A fixed spread means you don’t need to worry about re-quotes or spreads widening during high volume periods. It helps you to manage your trading costs as you will already know how much the buy ... There are different types of spreads available in forex trading that different brokers provide. Let’s take a look at these two examples so you may better understand your options. Fixed spread ...